在用轻型汽油车排放水平及趋势变化拟合研究

基于佛山市2.7万条稳态加载模拟工况法(ASM)的尾气排放检测数据,在分析了总体排放劣化特征随行驶里程呈规律性变化的基础上,通过分类统计和回归分析方法研究了在用轻型汽油车的排放劣化增长模型及不同排放标准机动车的排放特征.分析结果表明,线性增长模型能很好地表现CO,HC,NO三种污染物随行驶里程的劣化规律;不同排放标准的轻型汽油车排放特征差异很大,国零、Ⅰ、Ⅱ排放水平很高,对总体排放影响较大.研究结论对于预测机动车污染变化趋势,完善在用车检查/维护制度等方面可以提供理论支持.     

中国机动车污染物排放系数研究

中国机动车污染物排放已成为影响空气质量的重要来源。基于控制技术的机动车污染排放系数研究有助于排放控制。根据机动车使用状况,车用燃料硫含量,行驶状况和活动水平,运用MOBILE6.2的方法和原理确定了中国各类型机动车HC、CO、NOx的排放系数。小型汽油客车国0阶段CO、HC、NOx分别为78．18t/v、7．89t/v和1．95t／v;国Ⅰ阶段CO、HC、Nox分则为7．16t／v、0．64t/v和1．02t／v;国Ⅱ阶段CO、HC、NOx分则为0．64t／v、0．45t/v和0．25t／v。     

面向尾气预测需求的VMT模型

车辆行驶里程(VMT)是机动车尾气排放预测模型的重要输入参数之一，VMT值的精确度直接影响了模型的预测精度。文中提出了一种VMT估算模型，该模型引入指数回归模型，结合采样交通流量和路段特征来估测所有路段流量和VMT，并按时间和速度进行了进一步划分，在实际运用中，该模型在现有技术条件下也易于标定。     

中国水泥生产工艺的生命周期对比分析及建议

为了定量分析各种水泥生产工艺造成的环境影响以及工艺替代时可能造成的环境问题转移,采用生命周期评价(Life Cycle Assessment,LCA)方法,建立了大型、中型、小型新型干法、传统立窑、新型半干法(JT窑)5种典型水泥生产工艺从原材料开采到熟料生产的生命周期模型,对比分析了以上工艺生命周期过程中能耗、温室效应、酸化、可吸入无机物等主要环境影响类型的差异,提出并计算了大型新型干法替代其他工艺时的"平衡运输距离",并推导了其一般表达式.结果表明,由于大型新型干法工艺氮氧化物排放较多,使得工艺替代时可能伴随着环境问题从能耗、温室效应向酸化、可吸入无机物等影响类型转移;同时,由于产能增加,大型新型干法工艺也可能导致环境影响从生产阶段向运输阶段转移.从本文的案例研究可以看出,LCA方法可以定量分析不同环境影响类型之间和不同生命周期阶段之间的环境问题转移,能为技术评价和相关政策制定及实现全社会节能减排目标提供科学的依据与建议.     

中国机动车行驶里程分布规律

机动车行驶里程是计算机动车尾气排放量的一个重要参数.对全国数百个地级及以上城市不同车龄的机动车(包括轻型客车、公交车、出租车和摩托车)行驶里程进行了调查.结果表明:除公交车外,其他机动车的累积行驶里程均随车龄而呈现对数递减性,即车龄越长机动车的累积行驶里程增加越慢,年使用率越小;某类型机动车车队的年均行驶里程与调查基准年的各车龄机动车的保有量相关;提出了轻型客车年行驶里程和车龄的经验公式,并得到2007年轻型客车的年均行驶里程为2.691×104km.     

成都及其周边地区轻型载客汽车行驶里程调查与分析

研究目的是通过实地调查和统计分析及检验确定成都及其周边地区轻型载客汽车的活动水平(用行驶里程表征)及规律,并比较不同地区间的差异。统计表明,成都及周边城市轻型载客汽车的年均行驶里程为1.5~2.0万km/年。其中绵阳和其他城市间的差异比较显著,而其他城市间的差异在绝对值上较小。成都及其周边地区轻型载客汽车年均行驶里程随车龄呈递减趋势,以成都市最为明显,而周边其他地区稍差。结果表明,为提高机动车尾气排放清单的准确度,对城市差异较大的不同地区的轻型载客汽车的行驶里程进行分别调查是必要的。     

An estimation of vehicle kilometer traveled and on-road emissions using the traffic volume and travel speed on road links in Incheon City

The objective of this study is to estimate the vehicle kilometer traveled (VKT) and on-road emissions using the traffic volume in urban. We estimated two VKT; one is based on registered vehicles and the other is based on traffic volumes. VKT for registered vehicles was 2.11 times greater than that of the applied traffic volumes because each VKT estimation method is different. Therefore, we had to define the inner VKT is moved VKT inner in urban to compare two values. Also, we focused on freight modes because these are discharged much air pollutant emissions. From analysis results, we found middle and large trucks registered in other regions traveled to target city in order to carry freight, target city has included many industrial and logistics areas. Freight is transferred through the harbors, large logistics centers, or via locations before being moved to the final destination. During this process, most freight is moved by middle and large trucks, and trailers rather than small trucks for freight import and export. Therefore, these trucks from other areas are inflow more than registered vehicles. Most emissions from diesel trucks had been overestimated in comparison to VKT from applied traffic volumes in target city. From these findings, VKT is essential based on traffic volume and travel speed on road links in order to estimate accurately the emissions of diesel trucks in target city. Our findings support the estimation of the effect of on-road emissions on urban air quality in Korea.     

在用轻型汽油车排放随行驶里程劣化规律分析

基于佛山市3.5万条简易稳态工况(ASM)下的尾气排放检测数据,通过分类统计和线性拟合方法分析在用轻型汽油车的污染物排放浓度随行驶里程的劣化规律。分析结果表明,该地区轻型汽油车污染物排放浓度主要分布于低值区间,超过85%的样本数据低于最低排放限值;车辆排放劣化特征随行驶里程呈规律性变化,行驶里程在0~5万km时污染物排放缓慢增长,5万~16万km时呈快速线性增长,16万km后震荡缓慢增长;行驶里程在16万km前,不同车型的排放特征存在一定差异,其中轻型货车和轻型客车的排放浓度高、劣化速度快;CO、HC、NO随行驶里程的劣化规律可用线性增长模型表示。本研究结论可为预测机动车污染变化趋势、完善在用车检查/维护制度、高排放车辆识别和淘汰等方面提供理论支持。     

The accident-exposure association: self-reported versus recorded collisions

Problem

It has been claimed that exposure to risk of road traffic accidents (usually conceptualized as mileage) is curvilinearly associated with crashes (i.e., the increase in number of crashes decreases with increased mileage). However, this effect has been criticized as mainly an artifact of self-reported data.

Method

To test the proposition that self-reported accidents create part of the curvilinearity in data by under-reporting by high-accident drivers, self-reported and recorded collisions were plotted against hours of driving for bus drivers.

Results

It was found that the recorded data differed from self-reported information at the high end of exposure, and had a more linear association with the exposure measure as compared to the self-reported data, thus supporting the hypothesis.

Discussion

Part of the previously reported curvilinearity between accidents and exposure is apparently due to biased methods. Also, the interpretation of curvilinearity as an effect of exposure upon accidents was criticized as unfounded, as the causality may just as well go the other way. Impact on industry: The question of how exposure associates with crash involvement is far from resolved, and everyone who uses an exposure metric (mileage, time, induced) should be careful to investigate the exact properties of their variable before using it.